Of all divisions in the NBA last season, the Southwest was the best and most competitive. Four of the five teams won at least 50 games and reached the postseason. As loaded as the Western Conference is, this division alone is responsible for its parity.
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On paper, Houston doesn't have many weaknesses and its defense just got better with Artest. And if Luis Scola plays the way he did in Beijing, Houston may have the best offense in the division.
The Rockets have championship talent, but everyone will ask the same question: Can they stay healthy?
Tracy McGrady already has back and shoulder problems. Yao Ming seems to break something every season. Also, Shane Battier, their best defender, just suffered a foot injury that will sideline him at least four weeks.
Like San Antonio, health plays a major part in Houston's success. But things are more dicey for this team considering the history of T-Mac and Yao.
Projected record: 56-26 (first)
Dallas Mavericks
The window of opportunity may have already closed for Dallas. After losing a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals in 2006, the Mavs have suffered back-to-back losses in the first round of the playoffs.
On the positive side, Rick Carlisle is the new head coach, and they will have Jason Kidd for a full season. With Carlisle on board Dallas should play better team defense, but don't count on much. Kidd, on the other hand, is now 38 and struggles to defend quicker point guards.
Their role players — Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones and Erick Dampier — are aging as well. Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Josh Howard may be the only bright spots for this team, and Howard tends to disappear come playoff time.
Projected record: 50-32 (fourth)
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies were one of the worst teams in the Western Conference last season. It didn't help that they gave away their best player, Pau Gasol. But Marc Gasol, Pau's brother, will join the team this year. Marc looked pretty solid in the Olympics, but he's no Pau.
While there is good upside to this team, they won't return to the playoffs this season. Memphis lost one of its key players in Juan Carlos Navarro, who decided to return to Europe to play. Mike Miller was also traded away, though in return they got rookie guard O.J. Mayo, a potential star.
They still have Rudy Gay, Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley Jr., three guys who have tremendous upside.
Memphis will end up dead last in this division once again, but they are a young team on the rise.
Projected record: 30-52 (fifth)
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